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If Obama can take Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and Pennsylvania (which have all 4 voted dem since the 80's) then he'll have a 91% chance of winning.
It will all come down to Ohio.
If Obama gets all the states that have traditionally voted Dem, and McCain gets all the states that have traditionally voted Repub, then it'll all come down to Ohio as they tend to go back and forth between the two parties.
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