At the moment the polls show Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html
An average of 8 polls shows Obama ahead by about 3 points. Out of those 8 polls one shows them tied, one has McCain up by 1 point and the other 6 have Obama ahead.
According to
www.electoral-vote.com Obama is ahead in the electoral vote 273 to 265.
of course all of this can change. Just a week ago McCain was ahead but I think it was just his post convention bounce and the initial shock/excitement about Palin. He has lost his bounce and things are back to where they were pre-conventions and have been for most of the election.
I think the financial problems will actually help Obama out out. On CNN today they said that 2 out of 3 people polled blamed the republicans for the financial problems. If they continue to get worse it will most likely only help Obama.