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Trading sites, electoral college projection, and polls have McCain leading slightly.
I think there is a large swathe of Americans that are more comfortable with McCain and this is why the race remains so close despite the real and perceived shortcomings of Bush x 2. McCain is familiar. We know him and we know his story. We know he flip-flops like every other politician but we don't question his patriotism. He wears it every day on his broken shoulders.
Obama is less familiar to us. His life story, while interesting and exotic, is exactly that - quite different from most Americans. In one way his life is the American Dream incarnate - an ordinary kid who moved up the social ladder. But he's not an all-American prototype. He didn't come from a traditional family background and his experiences in places like Chicago are ones that most Americans are not acquinted with (ex. most Americans have never attended a Black church - we all know how segregated churches are). In this regard, his life is entirely unique and unconventional to the majority. There is an uneasiness about this and questionable associations ignite fear, apprehension, and distrust. I've read messages on various boards about the elections and it's clear, for example, that some people feel Obama is a closet militant communist radical with an agenda to impose socialism on Americans and acquiesce to dangerous foreign states.
Issues appear secondary matters to the undercurrent described above. This is evidenced by the fact that 3rd parties with superior platforms still can't garner enough support to break the two-party system. Some of the ideas those 3rd parties propose were once the hallmark of America's domestic and foreign policies but are now so alien to the American mindset that they even seem radical.
I don't think there is any other solid explanation for this close election. Sure there has always been the battle between red and blue state philosophies about governance but I think that's only part of the story in this election. If 100% of Hillary supporters were behind Obama, it would be a landslide in the polls already. But then again, Hillary is also familiar to us in the same way McCain is. It seems to me that half of Americans are ready to try something "new" (what others consider retro a la Carter), and half are unsure or would prefer keeping things as is to err on the side of 'caution' because theoretically things can always get worse.
I could be far off the mark, and come election day there may actually be a landslide or some result not indicated in the current polls and projections. Events in the coming weeks will influence the numbers quite a bit too. Obviously the factors of gender, race, and hard feelings play into all this as well.
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