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Here is a great example of why national polls often don't tell the story. in 1996 Gallup had Clinton winning 52% of the vote with Dole getting 41% and Perot getting 7%. The final numbers were pretty close with Clinton getting 50.1%, Dole 41.4% and Perot with 8.5%. Clinton got around 9 million more votes than Dole but when it came to the electoral count Clinton on 379 to 159, it wasn't very close at all.
In 1968 Gallup had Nixon and Humphrey within 1% of each other. The final vote finished within .6% of each other (gallup was all but perfect here) yet Nixon won 301 electoral votes to Humphrey's 191. It wasn't a close election at all.
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