Originally Posted by kane

He is not leading. The national polls are pretty close, most within the margin of error. But they don't matter. What matters is the electoral college and according to this site ( or any other like it ) http://www.electoral-vote.com/ he is behind and in trouble. The most telling points are the states Virginia, North Carolina, North and South Dakota and Montana. These are all states that Bush won easily and are typically Republican stronghold states. McCain has to fight just to hold on to those while also fighting to win a bunch of the battleground states. For Obama to win he just has to win the states Kerry won (most of which is comfortably ahead in the polls) and then just one battle ground state.

Obama will have at least twice and maybe as much at three times the money McCain has so McCain will be underfunded and having to fight just to hold onto his stronghold states. He has a big uphill fight to climb.