Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike33
If the 1022 is a random sample, then it has validity. If not, then it really doesn't say much.
"The method pollsters use to pick interviewees relies on the bedrock of mathematical reality: when the chance of selecting each person in the target population is known, then and only then do the results of the sample survey reflect the entire population. This is called a random sample or a probability sample. This is the reason that interviews with 1,000 American adults can accurately reflect the opinions of more than 210 million American adults." - http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/4
It's a counter-intuitive statistical reality that a random sample of 1000 people will accurately reflect millions. I didn't know this either until I took a stats course, and I never would have guessed it on my own. |
Over the last 20 years or so polls have become very accurate. Some are not, depending on the company that does them and how they do them, but most have a pretty good science of it and they tend to be pretty accurate.