View Single Post
Old 09-08-2008, 12:20 AM  
kane
Too lazy to set a custom title
 
kane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: portland, OR
Posts: 20,684
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike33 View Post
Barack Obama 238

183 Solid 55 Leaning

John McCain 174

142 Solid 32 Leaning

Toss Up 126

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/


The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it?s Obama 264, McCain 247

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ction_snapshot
This is a good site as well, but often the map isn't updated as much. For example they still show Ohio for McCain, when there have been some polls in the last week or say showing it has flipped for Obama (but it is still within the margin of error for either). If you click the option of having no leaning states it shows Obama 273 McCain 265 if Obama takes Ohio that would be Obama 293 and McCain 247 which is closer to how Electoral Vote has it.

The difference between the sites, as I understand it, is that RCP changes the map and updates using an average of the polls. So if there are 10 polls for that state and they average out to show McCain with a 1 point lead, he gets that state. Electoral Vote uses a different system. If there are three different polling companies giving the state to someone or the same company with three consecutive polls showing them leading then that state is given to that candidate. For example if you look at RCP for Ohio you see they are averaging 6 different polls. The problem is that two of them are more than two weeks old and another two are more than 10 days old and they only have one that is from this month.
kane is offline   Share thread on Digg Share thread on Twitter Share thread on Reddit Share thread on Facebook Reply With Quote