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Id say 10 years is a long time to take the gas to hit $20 - based on history - it has tripled in 5 years so assuming the same average increases (which are probably status quo for now) in 5 years it will be in the $14 range per gallon for the US - although I dont personally believe it will take that long. Most of the larger suppliers are known to have been lying about their output capabilities for at least the last 30 years (Saudis, Iranian etc) to boost confidence in their product - and will continue to play the increasing/decreasing output by 2% game like they are this week. Its all supply and demand to them - and the insatiable demand in the US and China are playing right into their hands.
The interesting part of the original post that I almost missed, but is probably the root issue involved, is the lack of infrastructure to handle food production and supply without the oil - it is a corner that the US has backed itself into - and has no capability to deal with. Im reminded of the quiet building of detention centers around the country (one is a few miles from where I live) to handle civil unrest after a "disaster" that was part of the restructured homeland security mandate after 2001. No conspiracy thinking here but what the heck would we need that much room (design of these places combined can hold tons of people) for?
This also brings up some rethinking based on Henry Kissingers old report written quite some time ago that theorized the exact same problems occuring - and included some recommendations for population "easement" - but I guess the people at the New World Order that commisioned the study probably have some ideas (I think Bush Sr outlined most of them back in 1991 or so)
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