Quote:
Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls
Well thats not even double yet the price of oil since 1970 has gone up over 400%. And the USA consumption has not gone up that much either.
That is why I have always said its mostly about the dollar and the other issues are really non issues. Those other reasons may be real but have a lot lesser impact on the cost of oil and other goods than the sinking dollar.
I mean are we at peak gold too?
Thanks for the link  |
Demand and price should be linear?
No idea if we are at or close to peak oil. It seems quite evident it will occur sometimes in the next 25 years. Everyone is guessing. The belief that we are very near peak oil -whether rightly or wrongly - may be having a strong upward push on the price too. Boone Pickens, Matthew Simmons et al have had a powerful influence on the industry in their proclamations.
The IEA published a forecast that production will rise to 116 million barrels per day. Boone Pickens says we aren't going to be able to produce any more than what we are producing now. is one of them right? or is it somewhere in between?
There are a lot more hints than just price that peak oil is coming. Many countries have already reached peak oil. The US hit it 40 years ago. The UK and Australia hit it a decade ago. Norway apparently just hit it. Hints out of Russia that they are at it. Fields like Cantrell have production declines much greater than originally expected.
Knowledge of "Peak oil" seems to have exploded the past few months.
http://google.com/trends?q=%22peak+o... e=2008&sort=0
Personally, I don't think anyone knows and there is just not enough info. The big problem in the analysis is what Saudia Arabia's production capability really is. Matthew Simmons' book takes the point of view that Saudia Arabian numbers are cooked way to the positive.