TRUE PRODUCTION WOULD RUN 25 YEARS
First, environmentalists took the lowest possible estimate of the ANWR's potential recoverable oil reserves -- about 5.7 billion barrels--and cut it by roughly 40 percent to around 3.4 billion barrels. Then they assumed that the oil would be produced at roughly 19 million barrels per day (b/d).
But the most likely estimate places the ANWR's recoverable reserves at an estimated 10.3 billion barrels -- more than three times the amount these environmentalists claim.
Moreover, any geologist would tell you that the notion of producing oil from the North Slope at a rate of 19 million b/d is sheer nonsense for at least two reasons.
First, when an oil field is brought into production, it takes time to reach its optimum output. After it does, it begins to decline as the resource is exhausted.
In the case of the ANWR, it is expected that production would build to 2 million b/d and then decline. In practice, this means the ANWR would produce for at least 25 years -- not six months.
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