Quote:
Originally Posted by Snake Doctor
It does look like she'll squeak out a win in the popular vote there, however, the guerrilla math Texas uses to apportion delegates and the fact that 1/3 of the delegates come from the caucus (we won't know the caucus results until this weekend or possibly even later than that) mean that Obama will most likely win more delegates from Texas, and that today's overall result will be a wash in delegates for the two campaigns.
From the Clinton Campaign:
The Path to the Nomination
This election will come down to delegates........Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived ?momentum.?..........As history shows, the Democratic nomination goes to the candidate who wins the most delegates ? not the candidate who wins the most states....
Mark Penn
Clinton Campaign Chief Strategist
http://thepage.time.com/penn-memo-th...he-nomination/
If Clinton wins every state left by a margin of 60%-40% (extremely unlikely, bordering on impossible) she still won't be able to catch Obama in pledged delegates.
The only person she's helping by staying in this race is John McCain. She can't win the nomination without finding a way to " overrule" the will of the voters....and if she does that, the nomination isn't worth having because half of Democrats will stay home or cast a protest vote for someone like Ralph Nader on election day. |
A msg I left for you in the old thread we were having.
https://gfy.com/fucking-around-and-business-discussion/810807-question-elections-citizen-3.html LMK.
Dean is going to have to do something about MI and FL.
Pennsylvania is a closed state with demographics like Ohio in many respects. Obama won't win that one.
Today we see the difference about primaries and caucuses where you had the same state on the same day and the same voters do both. She wins by 4% in the primary and he will win the caucus....
After today she also takes back the lead in overall popular vote.
He has an argument on the delegates right now, but she also has the argument about the crucial swing states needed in the GE.
And before he was arguing super delegates should vote with their constituencies but now they want it to go to the pledged delegate lead.
This is FAR from over and it will be interesting to see what Dean ends up doing with MI and FL.
And with the Rezko trial started you are going to hear his name mentioned a lot with that story with the possibility of more dirt being uncovered on the topic daily. This could be a long 7 weeks until Pennsylvania for him.
He also has the issue of painting himself into a corner with his change and no more politics as usual campaign theme. It really limits him from punching back hard without putting that image on the line with the public, but if he doesn't do it, he will look weak. Not a great spot to be in and a tough decision coming up within their campaign.
At any rate its been an interesting night and watching Chris Matthew, Keith Olbermann and Jack Cafferty seething today as they saw the internal exit polls and knew what was to come tonight was worth it. If looks could kill, they were sick to their stomaches and bubbling with rage all day.