Quote:
Originally Posted by Snake Doctor
Axeman, you're quoting the voting totals from Super Tuesday, which politically speaking was forever ago.
In the last 11 contests in a row that Obama has won he has won convincingly.
What I mean by the stuff being crap is that it's penny ante stuff. It's nothing that's going to get traction in the national media or hurt Obama in the polls. It's the kind of stuff that the republicans will use in fund-raising emails and things like that, but it's nothing that's going to cost Obama any votes that he had a chance at getting in the first place.
The general election will be about a guy who was opposed to the Iraq war from the beginning and wants to get out now vs a guy who has supported it from day one and wants to stay indefinitely.
It will be about a candidate who wants every American to have access to affordable health care vs one who thinks we can't afford to do that.
It will be about a candidate who was opposed to the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy from the beginning vs a guy who opposed them at the beginning, but then embraced them when trying to win the republican nomination, and NOW says he wants them to be permanent.
Those are the kinds of things voters will be paying attention to in November, not who gave what speech on what day and when exactly did so and so start running for a certain office, or sponsor a bill in the Illinois state legislature. The fact that you have to scrutinize that hard to find something to use against Obama tells me that there isn't any there there.
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If you feel that those things wont pull Obama down, thats fine. I strongly disagree. He is near his peak. He will need almost every ounce of his popularity right now to beat McCain, and he will need to make big inroads with a good % of Clinton supporters to earn their vote, and he will need to somehow get Michigan and Florida back on board, which will be extremely difficult since he can not ask for their votes to count because it would cripple his momentum and delegate lead.
He has to make strong inroads in the south to get more voters than the AA population and even then he has no shot to win in most of those states. He will not win Alaska. He will not win Kansas. He will not win Idaho or Wyoming. He will be hard pressed to win swing state Missouri (where he lost 110 of the 115 counties on Super Tuesdays but carried the urban cities to get the slight delegate lead), and he will be extremely hard pressed to win Pennsylvania.
I have no problem with supporting Obama, but I also believe we need to get the good and bad out about both candiates out before the nomination is made so the people and party have all the facts and make the right choice. We are starting to get more straight facts in the media now, and its not going to stop.
Just don't keep looking thru the rosy glasses and think this is an easy win for Obama in November. When you look at the states he won to get momentum they were largely pure red states where he won the caucus which hardly is a true perception of the people. Look no further than Washington State where Obama won 57% to 30% in the caucus, but won 51 to 46% in their primary.
He lived on red state caucuses and its helped him very much. He has yet to win any major blue state. So I reserve judgment on his winning over the base until after the results from Texas and Ohio comes out and I see where the democratic party voters went. Maybe he surprises me and gets close to 55% of the democratic base in those states which would show he is making in roads in that regard. We shall see.
Just don't ignore the fact and plead ignorance to the fact that despite a 100 delegate lead before 3 big blue states vote, the Republicans are pushing hard for Obama and trying to pin him as the Democratic nominee. They are doing that for a reason, and that is they peg him to be the more vulnerable candidate in November.
Whether that ends up being true is yet to be seen but that very fact they are pushing so hard right now, makes me very nervous.