Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorB
I keep asking which red states does Obama wins. It doesn't matter is he gets 99% of the vote in those blue states. 2000 should have told you that actual vote totals don't matter.
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I've answered this in a couple of other threads but maybe you didn't see it so here goes again.
A case could be made that he could win any or all of these states: Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas and Virginia. All of these were states that were won by Bush in 2004, but in each case the margin of victory was less than 10% and in the case of Iowa it was actually less than 1%. New Mexico and Nevada were also won by Bush by less than 3%. If you go back and look at the maps from when Bill Clinton ran in 1992 and 1996 he actually won a handful of southern states. So the idea of of a democrat winning a southern state is not that far removed from reality. Obama could go into a couple of these states where they have a large black population and get them to vote for him. If you couple that with the reality that many in in the conservative christian right may not support McCain it could be enough to swing a couple of these states into Obama's column.
I'm not saying he would pull it off, but there are at least 6 states that Bush won in the last election that Obama would have a chance of winning.