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Originally Posted by warlock5
I think kane is right on this one. The religious right is not strongly supporting *any* of the Republican candidates. All but Huckabee have a pro-choice history; Huckabee is to the left on everything else. The demographic that were strong Bush supporters has now taken the attitude of "whoever is the least worst."
Also throw in the Mormon thing, a lot of Southern voters will feel more comfortable for voting for a Christian black. (no clue about Hillary.) Thats assuming Romney makes it.
Fuck you can debate this all day long, no one has a fucking clue who will win. However I think at this point *anyone* could win. If you have a particularly "un-electable" candidate, then Bloomberg will run, and that unelectable person could win without a majority of the vote just like Bill Clinton did.
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Yep, many leaders of the christian right have already said they won't support most of the candidates. Since Huckabee really has no chance of getting the nomination it will come down to one of the others and they don't really care for any of them. If the dem ends up being hillary they might support the republican simply because they hate hillary, but if it is obama (or if edwards pulls off a miracle) they may not. I don't know that they would vote for obama, but there is a strong chance many wouldn't vote for the republican either. They would just not vote, or support a third candidate that they liked. If the republican has a lack of far right support and you factor in that we are still in the middle of a republican backlash and if obama can get the young people and the black people to support him, he could win a few of the "opportunity states".
In the end it is a crap shoot. The voters are fickle. Three months ago the polls showed the #1 thing on people's minds in regards to the election was Iraq. Now its the economy and who knows what it will be in another 3 or 6 months. The hot candidate now could be cold in a few months and if Bloomberg enters the race who knows what would happen.