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I think the paid porn turns into a per scene marketplace. Just as people aren't buying full albums anymore, they're buying individual songs. People will now buy scenes instead of full sites. Exclusive high quality content will be what sells. Stuff in HD with good plotlines and good camerawork.
The older, generic, content that has been around for years and is seen on hundreds of sites will go almost completely free. Sites will offer free admission, let them view all the free movies they want, and make their money on upsells to the higher quality content, cams, dating, toys, and other products.
Essentially, paysites as we know it will continue to die a slow death. Smaller programs will get bought out, major consolidation will take place, and in the end you'll have a handful of big companies that cater to this leftover market and will still be succesful. They'll utilize a lot of this members area traffic to promote other ventures such as cams, VOD, and dating.
On the other hand, I think live cams, live shows, etc will benefit greatly. Companies will step in and have pornstars do live shoots. They'll allow users to vote on themes, outfits, and sex acts. Events will be scheduled, similar to how PPV works on TV. Users will be promoted to sign up and watch a specific gangbang or a specific girl do her first anal scene live. The live facet will bring a new dimension and a market that can't resist plugging in their credit cards. You may also see these shows go free and the promoters make their money on ads around the video or during the show during breaks.
We'll also see more amateurs becoming succesful. We've seen it happen with Tila Tequila, LonelyGirl15, etc. It will happen more in the adult industry. Technology has advanced to the point where the average girl can afford good cameras and video equipment. You'll see a shift from the "canned solo girl" site where the girl isn't involved back to an amateur who actually runs her site. A girl who does cam shows for money, produces a lot of free content, and makes her money from donations, private shows, private shoots, and other advertising. It's a reality based society and the adult industry will have to shift to that audience.
Just my thoughts. :-)
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