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Originally Posted by ADL Colin
Yeah, I think I remember you saying Paul wouldn't win the Republican nomination.
A candidate and his campaign have to generate press. It's part of running a winning campaign. I don't think making a statement that FOX didn't included him in the debate because "they are scared" qualifies as generating good press. It just sounds bizarre and conspiratorial. It appeals to the conspiracy theorist minded supporters over at the Ron Paul forums. It doesn't appeal to most of America though. How is criticizing FOX, the one network he probably needs on his side more than any other, a good idea?
But OK, look at Huckabee. Here is a guy that really has gained ground. Huckabee was as low as Paul 6 months ago. This morning's RCP average has Huckabee at 18.7% and Paul has faded to 3.3%. That says something.
More people would look and see him 6th nationally, hear the FOX comment and just think "sour grapes".
I don't know how much of a surprise Iowa was. He was at 9% in the des Moines register poll and finished at 10% I think. he finished in 5th place. He could do better than he is polling in New Hampshire because of the demographics. Maybe he could eben finish 3rd depending on what the indepenents do, But then what? His numbers are awful in states without many independents.
Sure he could do decent as an independent in the general election but he will just play the spoiler. He could win the election for someone else.
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The Huckabee comparison is a bad one. He pandered to a large block of voters who only vote for the bible. The first candidate that made an effort for the christian right was going to get a huge bump as they were looking for someone to represent their views. Fox News got on his wagon and his name recognition skyrocketed.
As for the Iowa numbers, Paul was polling 2-3% a couple of months ago and even right before most polls had his support around 5-6%. The register just happened to be the one that was more accurate. Without splitting hairs, he was close enough to the pack in Iowa and he is polling close enough in NH for him to be included in the debate. Fox was wrong to censor his views.
I am not sure he is getting all bad press from Fox's snub. He is getting a shot on Leno again tonight and I have read many articles the last few days that I would consider good press arising from Fox's decision. Maybe some will write him off as the kook's candidate, but some may go to his website to find out more. Either way, he is getting an opportunity to be heard even tho Fox has dubbed him immaterial to the election.
And according to Fox news, there is no room for true conservatives in the party. If he does eventually run as an independent the consequences may not be immaterial as you suggest. Many people are tired of voting for the lesser of two evils and have decided that evil is just plain evil. In my opinion, there is NO distinguishable difference in the other candidates and it does not matter which of them win. But if the losing party adopts some of the issues important to his supporters then his candidacy will mean something as the platform changes.