Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie g
Hey Collin. I am not delusional about Paul winning the nomination. But the national numbers are low for a variety of reasons. Most people don't even know who Ron Paul is because of the lack of press this guy has gotten. The longer he stays in and the more ads he can get up in the Super Tuesday states the better he will do. He has surprised in Iowa and he will surprise in New Hampshire and recent polling has him gaining in South Carolina.
After February 5th he might decide he needs to run as an independent. At least he will have that option, whereas the other Republicans don't.
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Yeah, I think I remember you saying Paul wouldn't win the Republican nomination.
A candidate and his campaign have to generate press. It's part of running a winning campaign. I don't think making a statement that FOX didn't included him in the debate because "they are scared" qualifies as generating good press. It just sounds bizarre and conspiratorial. It appeals to the conspiracy theorist minded supporters over at the Ron Paul forums. It doesn't appeal to most of America though. How is criticizing FOX, the one network he probably needs on his side more than any other, a good idea?
But OK, look at Huckabee. Here is a guy that really has gained ground. Huckabee was as low as Paul 6 months ago. This morning's RCP average has Huckabee at 18.7% and Paul has faded to 3.3%. That says something.
More people would look and see him 6th nationally, hear the FOX comment and just think "sour grapes".
I don't know how much of a surprise Iowa was. He was at 9% in the des Moines register poll and finished at 10% I think. he finished in 5th place. He could do better than he is polling in New Hampshire because of the demographics. Maybe he could eben finish 3rd depending on what the indepenents do, But then what? His numbers are awful in states without many independents.
Sure he could do decent as an independent in the general election but he will just play the spoiler. He could win the election for someone else.