Quote:
Originally Posted by BoyAlley
Like him or not, at the very least this poll continues to defy the logic used by Fox News as to why it allowed Fred Thompson in the debate, but didn't let Ron Paul in. 
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Didn't Fox say Paul was excluded because of his national numbers? His average right now nationwide is 3.6%.
Paul COULD do moderately maybe even surprisingly well in New Hampshire because of the large number of independents in the state. A recent New Hampshire poll shows he is 10% among Republicans but 22% among independents. About 42% of voters in New Hampshire are independent. This is a very high number. Mid to upper teens is possible in this state (15% + a little). I'm not saying it is likely or will happen. Only that it is possible. No one knows how it will play out which is why we actually have the primary. It's about voter turnout from those subgroups.
BUT ... look down the road. Look at that 3.6% nationwide right now. New Hampshire is an anomaly because independents can vote in either primary. This is not true in many states. In many states only a registered Republican can vote in the Republican primary. There are big states where Paul has less than 2% in the polls.
It's like saying Giuliani is done because he performed poorly in two early states that he expected to perform poorly in. Nationwide though, he is the leader (Real Clear Politics Average)
Nationwide:
Giuliani 20.8%
McCain 17.6%
Huckabee 17.6%
Romney 14.4%
Thompson 11.4%
Paul 3.6%