Quote:
Originally Posted by kane
I have read time and time again how Paul is the up and comer and he is raising all this money and he will make a real run. Most of his supporters have said the polls don't matter (for many reasons) while I have argued the opposite and said the polls are rarely wrong.
So, we are only 2 days away from the Iowa Caucus where everyone, Paul especially, wants to make a good showing.
I predict he will get around 7% of the vote and that will be good for 5th or 6th place. Not much of a splash.
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The polls are rarely wrong in general elections, primaries are a bit more tricky. Paul is banking on the fact that the people who will be voting for him are not your typical registered Republicans. That a good portion of his voters will be newly registered Republicans (mainly independents and Libertarians who don't vote in primaries). Polls target registered voters who have voted before in the primaries.
I think Obama will run into the same issue and I actually see him winning Iowa. His voters are much younger and new to the primaries, not the people being polled. My prediction is Obama barely wins Iowa and Paul grabs 10%.