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Dollarmansteve · 12-11-2007, 02:13 PM

I wrote a big long theory about the increase in "traffic velocity" as explaining the use of worsening conversion rates as correlating to the increase in 'free' traffic.

The reality is the internet is like one big paysite doing X joins per month. At some point your 'rolling database' maxes out.. meaning, there's a rotating pool of customers of X times Y = Z. So, there are Z signups to go around every month.. some people drop out of the customer loop and new people are added.

The argument of the doom and gloomers is that the rate of entrance of new customers is far lower than the 'cancellation' rate, and thus the pool Z is getting smaller.

I don't buy this for a second. Early on the rate of growth of new people coming on the internet was so high, it skewed the numbers because of the growth rate. There were so many more new surfers as new people came on the internet for the first time, that is was many times greater than the cancellation rate.

What we are really seeing is the maturing of the internet, there are less and less potential customers getting online everyday.

As for younger generations being 'trained' that a certain product is free and therefore won't pay for it - it's complete garbage. People will ALWAYS pay for value. If they value it, they'll pay for it.

For example - digital music. Music is still a giant industry and billions of dollars are spend on digital music... even though many of us are 'trained' that it is free. The only people crying about digital music is old-school record distribution companies - ie middle-men. Their business is DEAD.. there's no room for a middle man anymore because te customer doesn't have to go to a store to buy it. So the artificial market created by music middle-men has been CRUSHED and music is moving towards a new equilibrium price. This will, in the end, benefit the artists and the digital distributors.

The equilibriums of each sector of the adult market are constantly changed by technology, overall trends in society, etc. Value moves around from various mediums, distribution channels, etc. The companies that make the most money are the ones who add the most value - who provide the service that the customer values the most, or who offers the most exclusive product.

What is the value of ripped DVD porn with the same camera angles, shitty lighting, the same over-exposed models?? What is it really worth to a surfer to see the same scene they've seen on 200 different sites, the same model fucking the same guy...

Content producers need to create strong, recognizeable brands. Economics is a wonderful thing, it is a self-correcting system that is always striving for equilibrium but is never actually in equilibrium.

12-11-2007, 02:13 PM
Dollarmansteve Confirmed User Join Date: May 2005 Location: T.O. Posts: 2,849	I wrote a big long theory about the increase in "traffic velocity" as explaining the use of worsening conversion rates as correlating to the increase in 'free' traffic. The reality is the internet is like one big paysite doing X joins per month. At some point your 'rolling database' maxes out.. meaning, there's a rotating pool of customers of X times Y = Z. So, there are Z signups to go around every month.. some people drop out of the customer loop and new people are added. The argument of the doom and gloomers is that the rate of entrance of new customers is far lower than the 'cancellation' rate, and thus the pool Z is getting smaller. I don't buy this for a second. Early on the rate of growth of new people coming on the internet was so high, it skewed the numbers because of the growth rate. There were so many more new surfers as new people came on the internet for the first time, that is was many times greater than the cancellation rate. What we are really seeing is the maturing of the internet, there are less and less potential customers getting online everyday. As for younger generations being 'trained' that a certain product is free and therefore won't pay for it - it's complete garbage. People will ALWAYS pay for value. If they value it, they'll pay for it. For example - digital music. Music is still a giant industry and billions of dollars are spend on digital music... even though many of us are 'trained' that it is free. The only people crying about digital music is old-school record distribution companies - ie middle-men. Their business is DEAD.. there's no room for a middle man anymore because te customer doesn't have to go to a store to buy it. So the artificial market created by music middle-men has been CRUSHED and music is moving towards a new equilibrium price. This will, in the end, benefit the artists and the digital distributors. The equilibriums of each sector of the adult market are constantly changed by technology, overall trends in society, etc. Value moves around from various mediums, distribution channels, etc. The companies that make the most money are the ones who add the most value - who provide the service that the customer values the most, or who offers the most exclusive product. What is the value of ripped DVD porn with the same camera angles, shitty lighting, the same over-exposed models?? What is it really worth to a surfer to see the same scene they've seen on 200 different sites, the same model fucking the same guy... Content producers need to create strong, recognizeable brands. Economics is a wonderful thing, it is a self-correcting system that is always striving for equilibrium but is never actually in equilibrium. __________________ I died.