Quote:
Originally Posted by GigoloMason
I think you need a statistics review ;)
You don't add the %'s together  |
'
actually, in many ways you do, although it is a very rough calculation and not precise, it is pretty good for general play.
Effectively, when the player holds QT, there are 6 card that can help him. 52 card - 2 in your hand and 2 in the other guys hand means 48 cards. 6 in 48 chance to get any one card he needs. 12.5%, round it to 13% chance that any single card turned is a good card.
But now, he gets to turn 5 cards. Each of those cards has the same chance (actually, a slightly increasing chance because with every card flipped the remaining number of cards drop... so post-flop, there is 6 in 45 chance (13.3% - which is why I rounded the other one up to 13 to make it easier to do the math, good when you are sitting at the table and don't have a calculator handy!).
Each of the 5 cards has about a 13% chance of being the card he wants, so you have 5 * 13% chance. Effectively, the odds are not 65%, but the odds are quite high that any one of those 5 cards would be well over 50% right out the gate.
The flop comes, he doesn't get any of his cards, and now there are 45 cards left, 6 outs, and 2 cards to go - 26% chance that he sees a card he needs. Flip one more, those odds go to about 13.5%.
Think about it another way. If you are in a 1 in a million lottery and you buy two tickets, your single ticket odds didn't improve but overall you now have effectively 2 in 1 million odds. If you bought all 1 million tickets, you would have a 1 in 1 chance. It's pretty linear.