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Old 11-07-2007, 08:56 AM  
RawAlex
So Fucking Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: In a house.
Posts: 9,465
In theory, going all in with 9-9 against a strong caller isn't the best postition to be in. Specifically, there are way too many hands out there that can beat you, even if they aren't current paired up. There are 20 overcards in the deck, and if he is holding any 1 of them, he has 3 direct outs already. If he is holding 2 of them, he has 6 direct outs to start. Then look at things like straights, flushes, and a whole bunch of other stuff. Essentially, preflop he had probably a better hand than you (very close) and even post flop he still had about a 30% chance that one of his cards would come up, and he only needed one or the other (not both) to do it.

(6 out of 45 = 13% chance that any card that comes up is the one he wants, rounded up to 15 to allow for things like straights and flushes, etc. 15% over two cards = 30%).

That you got into that position preflop means that he had a pretty good chance for hitting one of those two cards ( 5 x 15% or 75%) and even a little extra chance with 5 cards to fill in a straight or a flush.

(Also, for your info, you have a 2 in 48 chance of seeing another 9, or about 4% x 5 cards gives you only about a 20% chance to improve your hand from where you start)

If I read it correctly, you likely should have called him at 60 and seen the flop - any over cards would have seriously limited your desire to stay in the pot at that point.
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