Quote:
Originally Posted by EonBlue
Or what if none of the economic fear-mongering is true?
|
It is correct that productivity was up for the last quarter - oldish news now and over-ridden by other problems in that quarter. 3.9% was actually very good and better than the forecast of 3.8%. It's a pity this can't be sustained thru the year - else there would be a chance of seeing something more positive over time.
Unfortuately this current quarter is expected to be fairly bad, mainly due to the economic situation gathering momentum, but, you never know - it is possible a decent percentage could be there, despite the background problems.
Other good news appears on a Fed survey of banks - they are generally tightening up on the issue of loans and remortgaging, obviously to cover their own asses, but it does keep the "quality" of loans higher and less chance of defaulting.
Any figures on employment are meaningless unless they can support them and give foundation for the calculation. This is the same mob who claimed something like an employment again of around 426,000 at the end of last year - and this was then revised to 19,000'ish. They are prone to hype and fantasy and trying to convince people it's the truth.
Bad news is the home problem is not showing any signs of bettering. Just read forecasts earlier of financial institutions being loaded with $1 trillion of sub-prime mortgage problems in next year or so. That's one hell of a lot of homes banks will have on their hands which they don't want. There may be a clue in banks being more flexible with customers on mortgage terms where a customer has a chance of repaying - it sure is better than homes standing empty and people without decent shelter.
So far about 1.7 million people have had foreclosure proceedings and an expected further 2 million over the next few years. According to the Joint Economic Committee, one in five mortages are now in jeopardy, tho these are usually related to sub-prime.
Believe me - it's not fear mongering - it's real life for many unfortunately and that can be painful. Needless to say the dollar dropped again and oil is on a fresh high of $97ish. Got little doubts oil will reach $100 now and the dollar will keep sliding each month until there is light at the end of the tunnel - tho, you'd need a magnifying glass to spot that speck of light - bad news.