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Originally Posted by pocketkangaroo
I'm not talking about Wall Street analysts. I'm talking about any financial person on the planet. I've yet to see one predict the kind of declines in housing you are suggesting will happen. I would think that one person in this world with an accredited economics/financial background would take your stance on this.
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There are plenty financial people on the planet who have no doubts that there will be a substantial reduction in US home values - generally for a few years ahead.
Every "accredited" (basically qualified) person I know are playing the same tune and have been for a fairly long time now - a few even predicted the current scenario over two years ago. As background, most of them deal on international markets and are responsible for substantial investment values - they ain't kids and currently would not dream of dumping their clients funds into Wall Street or the US home market.
If you want a "name" to followup on - try Robert Shiller - he's a Professor of Economics at Yale. There are plenty references and articles by him on the net. You may find Shiller's S&P Case Chart interesting - nobody has cared to contest this.
Who knows what will happen in practice in the end - but, either way, it's not going to be a pretty picture. The home market is a bubble of a magnitude of 85% over the last five years. There is no cost or scarcity reasons to justify this rise and, as Shiller himself describes it - it is no more than "irrational exuberance".
Sure, there are plenty other factors on the horizon which may not appeal, but the home market is obviously crucial in that it accounts for almost.. think, 30% of the economy. Next on the hit list, (tho it's already started) are retailers - and the ripples spread outwards.
BTW - the US is not the only country with an overstated real estate value - Canada and the UK have their share and same with where I am (Costa Rica). The difference is the economic background is not so precarious, nor are these nations deep in debt - they all operate a relatively balanced economy in line with their revenue collection and international trading ability.