|
For the next 15 months, it will be down. Not too much lower than where it is now, but it isn't going to get much better. In fact, if the fed lowers interest rates again, the dollar could tumble further. At some point, other countries will almost certainly step in and start buying US dollars to prop it up, to keep their export businesses alive.
Once the US gets a new President, I suspect things will change rather quickly. Firstly, the US will be on the back side of the current mortgage blowup. Second, the new President will almost certainly reduce the US military force in Iraq, and once again bring some stability to the world, mostly by having a strong force ready to swat the flies that are currently running free.
So 2 years out, probably about where it is now.
by five years out, I would expect it to be better than it is now, but I think that the Euro will be stronger than the US dollar for a very long time to come, maybe 1.25 to a dollar in 5 years.
|