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Ok, first of all, I look at traffic this way:
It's all one big pie, with slices for the whole industry to share.
All of this traffic is born on the Search Engines (SE's), with a constant influx of newcomers from them.
Eventually this traffic's quality will erode in our traffic pool.
The pretty much worst traffic is the one circulating between TGP's for instance, since it once came into our traffic pool from SE's
but after a while decided to stick to surfing the TGP's it became aware of (the "freeloader heaven").
This traffic isn't fresh to porn anymore, and finds less sensation in whatever it's looking at/for.
So, we constantly need the "fresh" surfers from the SE's, or the quality of the traffic in our traffic pool ("the pie") will deteriorate/erode... and our ratios dive further and further down.
This is where I see the main issue with this for us:
If we accept sites and concepts like tube and torrent sites, eventually those will rank higher and higher in the SE's.
What happens then is that the quality traffic goes to those sites, and convert to being "freeloader" traffic without giving US the first sales it produces. Left for us guys are only the same old freeloaders, plus NEW freeloaders coming to us after a while of sensation seeking on tube and torrent sites.
Of course, those sites WILL pick up the sales from these newcomers while they keep them,
and eventually it comes to us being less sales producing...
All in all, this makes it more difficult for regular affiliates to market paysites, with tighter margins and all. That also limits affiliates' freedom of marketing, so the ONLY profitable sites to market will be microniche/fetish sites.
Mainstream porn paysites will lose a lot of these regular affiliates and become really, *really* dependent on the tube and torrent sites' marketing.
And with that, they could be funding the downfall of the industry as we know it, where there's a lot of established, competively priced, shared resources for the businesses within it.
Mainstream porn paysite operators will have to work differently;
Massive budget demands for content and advertising, maybe even shift over to mainly producing & selling DVD's (less money on paysites but more for promotion of DVD's).
Niche/fetish paysite operators will have to work more, for *maybe* greater revenues;
Work harder, and pay more, to find quality affiliates (who understands their niches) - if the competition increases, even more hard work.
BTW, I'm talking about niches and fetishes like midgets, trannies, goth midget domination etc. here, lol.
This is nothing new though, it's only coming into effect a lot harder and faster now with these new types of sites pushing the envelope on what content is worth or not.
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