Quote:
Originally Posted by slapass
But the US market has done over 8% for a hundred years or so. You don't see many years or porr showing as an opportunity?
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100 years is a longish time to be thinking of investment terms - we'll all be dead slapass
Not sure if I'm getting you - you mean "don't see many years of poor showing as an investment opp?" If so, no - not in the current situation.
There are too many other problems at the moment re the US economy - including high levels of debt where there is no hope in hell of starting to repay for .. dunno, but at least 10 years ahead. Not sure exactly, but the debt level is over 900 trillion and increasing daily on foreign borrowings of around $12-14 billion/day. Internally there are severe manufacturing problems - or a lack of manufacturing or product suitable for exports and the trade balance has never been postive for almost 40 years. Overall, there is a great reliance on foreign manufactured goods and that does nothing but more harm to trade balances - forgetting these goods are being purchased on credit and, at least currently, with a low dollar value.
Tho agree - a low dollar should encourage exports and this has been happening to a degree, but no where near a level to have any impact on the economy as a whole (It's back to the lack of "exportable goods") .
At the moment can only see the dollar declining further - not just on it's own account, but where other currencies are slowly rising due to natural cycles of increased production etc.
The current obvious problem with homes is probably not even started yet and a few other corps will be struggling (they are already) - as well as folks trying to pay mortgages. The effect of that is massive down the line and appears to influence almost 25% of the economy when you include everyone involved from developers to realtors to furniture/kitchen equipment suppliers etc.
There is also high levels of personal debt and this has been tightening over the last year. The tendency was to use credit cards for impulse purchases at malls etc. Cards are now being used to pay for basic living expenses - food, power and an element of paying off other debts/mortgages etc. So.. next on the hit list are going to be retailers. It's a vicious cycle.
The core problem is basically debt and probably followed on by a weak manufacturing base and a tendency to rely of foreign imports.
It would be a total guess, but overall smell what is being seen at the moment is only the tip of an iceberg in the distance - and a long way to go before hitting the bottom and this may take a good few years yet.