Quote:
Originally posted by FATPad
Based on the S&P 500 (which is a fair representation of the market), since 1926 there has never been a 15 year or 20 year cycle where stocks lost money or broke even. They always gained over those time periods. Over a 10 year rolling period, there is a 3% chance of losing money.
|
The only comparable markets to what is currently going in today's stock market are possibly the current Nikkei Index and the 1929 stock market crash. The current stock market meltdown is obviously of epic proportions.
The Nikkei has been in a decline for 12 years and is still trending down. How long before it comes out of its bear market... let alone return to its previous highs?? No doubt in my mind that it will be more than 20 years total to get back the losses there.
The 1929 crash took 25 years before the market returned to its pre-crash level.
The housing bubble was not quite as euphoric and manic as the stock market bubble (maybe) but will likely take a long time to crash and recover as well.