Quote:
Originally Posted by Libertine
Not in that order, by the way.
Ordered by chances, I'd say the field now looks like this:
Giuliuni (good chance of winning the primary, good chance of winning the election)
Clinton (very good chance of winning the primary, decent chance of winning the election)
Thompson (medium chance of winning the primary, decent chance of winning the election)
Obama (low to medium chance of winning the primary, good chance of winning the election)
Basically, Clinton is almost certain to get the democratic nomination, and she would be likelier to lose than to win against Giuliani, but likelier to win than to lose against Thompson. Giuliani is very likely to get the republican nomination, and if he does get it, he has a very high chance of winning the election. Obama could win the election if he were nominated, but it doesn't seem very likely that that will happen. Meanwhile, Thompson would be somewhat likely to lose against either Clinton or Obama, but he's got a shot at getting the republican nomination.
No others on the dem side stand a chance of getting the nomination. On the rep side, Romney has a small but significant chance of getting it, but he would definitely lose the election.
This is all speculation based on the assumption that nobody will severely mess up in the next year and a half. Of course, that assumption is wrong and someone will certainly mess up, and that may well determine the outcome of the election.
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I pretty much agree with you. On the Rep site McCain is on a downslide and Thompson has not even formally announced yet. Romney is way too conservative. I think he won't fly too well in the states that are not dark red. He probably will, but his curve is looking a lot like Howard Dean did in the last election. He has some grass roots support and is raising money in non-typical ways, but he is basically just another cookie cutter republican so I don't think he will win the nod. Rudy has the best chance of getting the nomination. I think on the dems side it will be hillary and she may even end up with Obama as her VP. That would be smart for him because he is young so if she serves two terms it puts him in a great place to step up to the presidency.
I think hilary Vs rudy will be close. The hardcore right doesn't want to support rudy for several reason, but they hate clinton so they would probably support him out of spite for her. Also he has a chance to win New York. He probably won't, but he should be able to make NY close which causes hilary to have to spend time, money and effort to keep what is typically a democrat stronghold state which will weaken her campaign. Ultimately I think rudy is enough of a social moderate that he will be able to bring in enough independents to win the race.
Anything could happen because we are still a long ways away, but as of right now I would say if rudy wins the republican nomination he wins the whole thing. if any other republican wins the nomination they lose to the democrat which is likely to be hilary or obama.