Quote:
Originally Posted by Libertine
Thompson, Clinton or Giuliani.
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Not in that order, by the way.
Ordered by chances, I'd say the field now looks like this:
Giuliuni (good chance of winning the primary, good chance of winning the election)
Clinton (very good chance of winning the primary, decent chance of winning the election)
Thompson (medium chance of winning the primary, decent chance of winning the election)
Obama (low to medium chance of winning the primary, good chance of winning the election)
Basically, Clinton is almost certain to get the democratic nomination, and she would be likelier to lose than to win against Giuliani, but likelier to win than to lose against Thompson. Giuliani is very likely to get the republican nomination, and if he does get it, he has a very high chance of winning the election. Obama could win the election if he were nominated, but it doesn't seem very likely that that will happen. Meanwhile, Thompson would be somewhat likely to lose against either Clinton or Obama, but he's got a shot at getting the republican nomination.
No others on the dem side stand a chance of getting the nomination. On the rep side, Romney has a small but significant chance of getting it, but he would definitely lose the election.
This is all speculation based on the assumption that nobody will severely mess up in the next year and a half. Of course, that assumption is wrong and someone will certainly mess up, and that may well determine the outcome of the election.