jayeff

I'm not at all sure you are right. Look at events of the last few years (and apart from being more overt, they are otherwise typical of US foreign policy under numerous presidents from both parties).

Before 9/11 we were already gearing up to invade Afghanistan. Within hours of 9/11 happening, we were blaming Osama Bin Laden. The Russians hadn't been able to kill or capture him when they occupied the country, but the inability of the Taliban to exile or capture him was apparently reason enough to invade a country which no-one even attempted to claim was in any shape or form a danger to us. The only extra spin we added to the emotions fostered by 9/11 was to point out that by our standards, the Taliban weren't very nice people.

Not only did we invade Afghanistan, we are still there years later despite not having found, let alone captured Bin Laden. Apart from the deaths of American troops and thousands of Afghanis, the most obvious consequence of that invasion is that the opium crop in Afghanistan has never been bigger. And we are stuck there because we displaced the only people - like them or not - who had the power to rule the country.

The American public got behind the invasion of Iraq for similarly emotional and equally spurious reasons. The cost to both sides has been even greater. And we are stuck there too, because even if there is no victory (except insofar as chaos was probably the intent from day one) if we stay, pulling out would be perceived as defeat.

So to Iran, guilty of some saber rattling: the Shia's in southern Iraq have not been totally docile and Hezbollah in Lebanon stirred up the Israelis last year. But in both instances, the activities have been considerably restrained, which strongly suggests that Iran is keeping a tight rein. And despite the occasional inflammatory rhetoric intended mainly for the folks at home, since the 1970's Iran has been quietly but consistently building political and economic ties with Europe. Finally there is their nuclear program, but as with Iraq, the reports which the US public generally do not hear about, are nowhere near as clear as - often even contradictory of - the stories coming out of the White House.

In other words, the US public is being set up once more to support a military adventure, by being fed a mix of half truths, exaggeration and lies. What Iran actually says or intends, is presumably known in Washington. But even if so, it is not going to be apparent to the likes of you and me, so long as such knowledge might get in the way of the administration's plans.