Quote:
Originally Posted by RawAlex
Nick, sorry, but you need to go back and take a basic stats course to understand what you are getting into. 20% doesn't mean that every fifth ball goes in, but that over a sample range 20% of the balls went in. This is no way to accurately predict the percentage of sequential goals with the data you present.
Now, assumimg that the current shot was a goal, the chance that the next shot is also a goal is 20% - because the odds of the shot going in don't change because of the previous goal. So you are at 20%. Now, there is a 20% chance that the one after it is a goal as well, so the number straight lined is about 16%... but that is a very straight line interpretation of the math.
So, sorry, you won't make it as a math or stats major.
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I understand your point of view completely.
But to me, its simpler then that. You use the information that you are given. If he is shooting 20%, then odds say every shot he takes has a 20% chance of making it.
If I ask you if there is 2, 2 gallon containers full of water, how much water could you pour from them. Someone can say "well what if the water is frozen". To me you're doing the same thing. "What if he made 20 and missed 80".