Quote:
Originally Posted by interracialtoons
No, I'm saying you didn't provide the correct parameters to do such a thing in your brain teaser. Fliping a coin 100 times and getting heads 20% of the time does not give any indication whatsoever that heads turned up 2 times in a row at any time. Without that information there is no way to determine the odds.
If you had said that out of 100 tries two heads in a row came up 20 times.
Then the odds could be figure and they would be 20% that it woud happen now.
See, heads comming up twice in a row versus heads comming up period are two separate phenomenon and you are trying to take the properties of one phenomenon and determine the properties of another. CANT DO IT!
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Yes but you know that the odds of it being heads is 50% because there are only 2 possibilities. Same thing here, 20% means there is 5 possibilities and 1 of them is a goal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by interracialtoons
And he might make 200,000 shots in a row! Which would mean at NO time did he ever hit exactly 2 out of eight shots!!!!
He would have hit 8 out of 8 shots 25,000 times and then missed 8 out of 8 shots for the rest of the time.
How much would you bet on a guy like that making exactly 2 shots out of eight? ZERO?
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Yes he can make 200,000 shots in a row. There is even a way to figure out the odds of that happening. Probably something like 1 in a 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. But I think thats the part you don't get (or maybe ommiting to fit the criteria of your logic). That regardless of how you look at it the possibility is there.