Quote:
Originally Posted by nick3131
thats like saying
"every time I flip a coin there is a 50% chance it will be heads. But if i get heads 2 times in a row i bettered my odds. Therefore the odds of me getting heads twice is 0%"
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Like I said...stay the fuck out of teaching math.
If you flip the coin and get heads then the odds that you will fip it again and get heads is the odds that you will get heads no matter what, which is 50%.
You are trying to add percentages of "turns" to try and determine total odds.
You can't do that.
See, reality and odds are not the same and you are trying to use reality as the odds.
The reality that the shooter could make 2 shots out of eight is really fucking high. But the math to figure the odds based on his actual percentage does not exist since the guy could hit 200 shots in a row and then miss 1000 times and still have the same shooting percentage.
Your 8,000,000 shot scenario is assuming that his hits and missess are evenally distributed and you can section them out and count the number of time he hit 2 shots out of eight. Which is total bullshit.
The way to make your question work is like this:
Everyday a guy takes 8 shots.
After a month his total percentage of made shots is 20%
(BTW the 20% means fucking nothing)
Then you would count how many days he made exactly 2 shots.
Then the number of days would be divided by one month to give you
the odds you are seeking.
Which would be the odds that he would go out today and make 2 of
eight shots.
Only under those circumstances would those odds have any meaning whatsoever.
Do you see how the fact that he had a total percentage of 20% does not show how many days he actually made excatly 2 shots?