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Commodities turn before bonds. Gold started moving up in 2001 and then long rates in 2003. Rates followed gold up in the 70s. Rates have to move high enough to make people move from physical money back into paper money.
Think about this.....rates have been raised 17 times....yet gold is near a multi-decade high and the dollar at a low.
Today's economy is not like it was in the 70s- the debt and deficits are so much worse that rates would have to move very very high...perhaps over 20% to stabalize paper currency. Rates above 6% would collapse the economy. There is no way short rates are going that much above where they are now.
You have to look at money supply. Even when the Fed was tightening (raising rates to tighten the supply of money) they were printing money and expanding the money supply to keep economic activity going. In March they did away with reporting M3 the most accurate gauge for money supply. That is one of many red flags, that hyperinflation is coming.
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