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Originally Posted by Rochard
What's going to happen in this industry is the same as any other emerging industry - It will be led by a hand full of people who will make great money for a long time, and then the large fish will swallow up the little fish. You see this already with Playboy buying up ICS and Jenna; I also know of two VERY large and VERY mainstream companies who are about to enter into the porn market (one in August and one in January).
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The large fish/small fish concept is a popular one but it only goes so far. The handful of corporate giants who end up dominating most industries usually buy up one or a few companies to get a base, but create most of their growth themselves using their financial clout. Otherwise most consolidation that maturing industries experience, turns out in the end to have been mainly about attempting to stem decline.
Any of the large operators
could kick their businesses into a higher gear, but the only ones showing any signs of doing so at the moment are AEBN & Guba. I have a feeling that most of the biggest operations 10 years from now will be companies which are not in online porn at all yet: the companies you mentioned might be among them.