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Originally Posted by Anthony
Back 98, Nickatilynx told me that it was still the wild wild west. A single webmaster could control large amounts of traffic and be a force. Once the Adult web became a corporate landscape, the mom and pop sites would disappear.
I believe we have come to that crossroad.
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The "mom and pop" sites will never disappear, but in future they will be fewer in number and they will earn an income more in line with their real worth: ie a lot less than now, which in turn is already a lot less than 5+ years ago.
In terms of how online porn will develop as it matures as an industry, I'm not aware of anything to suggest it will prove to be in any way unique. If that development follows the usual route, then over the next 5-10 years there will be a lot of consolidation among the larger operators. Those that remain will hold a fairly lowly second tier because a handful of corporate-style businesses will emerge at the top of the tree (buying out some existing sites along the way). Finally there will remain many smaller sites, most much further down the economic ladder, working in specialist areas or servicing the bigger operations in some way. The discussion about free porn is basically irrelevant, not only for the reasons I gave in an earlier post, but because it is merely a symptom of more far-reaching changes.
How could it be otherwise? When an industry like this is new and there is an overwhelming excess of demand, sure someone with minimal relevant skills can sit down at a PC and with no investment but his (or her) time, make lots of money. But we have had 10 years of that already and it is naive to imagine it can continue.
If it's any consolation, many well-known names will disappear too because they will be unwilling or unable to adapt. And definitely on the plus side, once the industry has shaken itself out, drops the infighting of the last 3-5 years and starts looking outwards for new business again, total revenues will rise dramatically.