klinton

What ya think ?

rowan

I always wondered about estimates. I imagine the guys at a large processor like ccbill saying something like:

- If there's that much pr0n being sold, we must not be as big as we thought?

or alternatively

- Ha, ha, ha! Those fools! They're off by two orders of magnitude! We are fucking RAKING it in compared to their stupid guesses!

NatalieK

wishing more of the affiliates were sending sales to my site as I´m getting sales daily & so many of my affiliates are only sending 100 hits a month, getting maybe one sale a month instead of sending all their traffic to my site, maybe 2000 hits a day and getting 150 or 200 sales a month...

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CaptainHowdy

I wouldn't like to know nowadays ...

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hundreds of thousands

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The Porn Nerd

Sales every sngle day going on nine years now.
But how many? Hate to sound like a lawyer but....it depends.
Day of week, time of month, time of year, economy, all kinds of factors.

But enough to fuck pornstars so extrapolate from there.

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Barry-xlovecam

Plenty but less than 10 years ago ...

klinton

my estimate is something between 10k and 30k...what ya think ?

actually, that can be even too much..more like 10-20k daily...

bns666

much less day by day...

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thommy

i would give it a try with parts of my english speaking traffic but I would need at least:
1. adding unique clickid
2. S2S-postback on signup
3. S2S-postback on rebill

not sure if your system can do that. unfortunately most of the "good old membershipsites"
aren´t able to fulfill the needs of modern marketing and that´s why the big traffic guys don´t like to work with them too much.

I can really see a trend back to membership sites but not on the marketing needs.
the biz have changed a lot in the past 10 years. affiliates do mostly not even own a website and don´t have a clue how to build up traffic. means they are buying the traffic and that´s why they need to be much tougher as one who deals with traffic he gets for free.

unfortunately all this old school paysites are used to work with webmaster-affiliates and that´s why they have problems to survive.

I would wish some of them (not all - because that would be too much again) wake up and start to concern the needs of modern marketing.

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cordoba

Well if that is an accurate estimate then the porn business must be worth much less than a billion as is often touted.

The market is certainly wider than 'the good old days'. I get sales regularly from places like Russia, Vietnam, and even China. That was certainly rare only 10 years ago I think.

Actually, if China liberalized their porn laws it would save the industry and probably double the worldwide porn $$$ by 2030. Hopefully VR might be a catalyst because China is big into virtual reality, so if all the Chinese men are fapping to VR Porn maybe the authorities will realize it's better that they keep single men happy rather than frustrated at not getting any action with the gender imbalance they have over there. Also, for some bizarre reason, despite their anti-porn stance the Chinese have taken over from Japan in kinky luxury sex dolls and other high tech sex goods. As VR and haptic toys and sex robots all start to combine with each other, they are going to have to decide to legalize porn or ban the other stuff.

adultchatpay

Porn is a $6B per year industry.
That is $16.5M a day.

So let's say half of those amount are from porn membership revenues...
If a regular porn subscription is $49.99, total sign ups/porn memberships per day is around 200,000.

That is a realistic figure in my estimate.

NatalieK

sounds interesting, so, i´m finding out if we can provide you with everything you need from ModelCentro :thumbsusp


regarding webmasters, yes, you´re pretty right... old schoolers, the guys here making big money have blogs and sites, groups of urls linked to each other and linking to the sales, the sites. Now, it seems many people are out for the easy quick buck and not working hard for the long haul

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klinton

not really. you dont count here adult dating, websites escort services (?)cams, vods, clips4sale etc.

klinton

unrealistic numbers IMO. its 10 times less IMO, so around 20 K sales per day

there is no way that 50 % of money in porn is done from membership sites. Also, you didnt count rebills etc. 200 K sales to porn sites per day ? no way dude...I really doubt that AdultForce (and they are one of the biggest) makes more than 2 K NEW sales per day.

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cordoba

Well I don't know if the OP meant to include adult dating and cam site memberships but all I know is that if his guesstimate is correct, according to whatever definition of porn he is using, porn is not a billion dollar industry, even if the average webcam membership is much higher than a porn video site.

You could also count sex toys if you are referring to 'adult' being a multi-billion dollar business.

I didn't mean to imply that I thought porn (or 'adult') was worth less than a billion. Actually, I meant that his guesstimate was likely a bit out.

klinton

I meant NEW sales on membership sites, like rk.com etc. Not including rebills, cams, sex toys, adult dating, adult escort, vod, clips4sale etc.
I honestly doubt thats more than 20-30 K sales per day - these days.

geirlur

Someone at Adult Force told me how many signups they did a day and that was quite impressive.

I was probably not supposed to tell how many and I'm too lazy to go through chat log to see the exact number anyways

klinton

did or do ?
more than 3 K per day ?

The Porn Nerd

Yes but we need to remember there are many different types of "signups". A free trial? A $2 trial? $14.95 that rebills at $39.95? $9.95, $19.95, $24.95 or $29.95 per month?

A company can claim five hundred signups but if 465 of them are free or $2 trials, well....Factor in CBs and refunds from those types of "signups" and who knows what the real number of (full) joins is?

All you need to know to get the answer as to how many sales a site makes is:

Traffic (uniques)
Conversions

And guess what? You can never, ever tell those numbers! Alexa helps a little but not really. You have to be able to see traffic and sales logs and an outsider will never see those so...who the fuck really knows. LOL

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fuzebox

If you guys had any idea how many transactions are being conducted from mailers and xsales...

Stop thinking in terms of clicking a banner and joining rk.com...

cordoba

The adult male population of the planet is over 3 billion. 20K signups a day would equate to around only 1 in 500 males on the planet purchasing a porn membership each year. That's not including signups from the 3 billion women.

This seems an underestimate to me.

One day last year I made 41 signups in a single day, the most I've ever had (I average about 2 a day now). That was because for a brief period one of my sites was ranked on the first page of Google for a small niche. I can't believe that an insignificant affiliate like myself could, even for one day, claim even a 0.04% share of the total porn memberships sold online.

Roald

Of course it's an underestimate, a massive one i'd say.

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klinton

sounds actually very realistic to me. 3 bilion males= remove from them kids, blind grandpas and thirdworlders and you will barely get 800 mln males from "worthwile" countries.
and that would mean 1 male out of 150 buying porn membership per year.
Which is still a lot, when you consider a fact that PORN IS FOR FREE, and you may find everything on tubes

klinton

does PayServe (after tainster split) makes more than 200-300 NEW joins per day these days ?
I honestly doubt, but I can be wrong

Roald

That's about it more or less. Our focus is almost 100% on live cams since the beginning of this year though. We do update and add new sites since we still have a proper member base to work with but that's just adding and not much more.

Majority of our income is coming from live cams these days. 2017 profits doubled on that vertical.

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Busty2

42........

cordoba

Well the 3 billion males is over 18s, but yeah, a big percentage of that isn't going to be porn purchasers. I got a surprise recently when one of the sites I promote dropped me an affiliate newsletter with links and banners for their 'China singles day' promotion. Some porn sites are now actually actively targeting the Chinese market. Imagine if China had the same tolerance of porn as Europe?(although I guess we would then have thousands of Chinese porn affiliates to compete with).

It's hard to say whether 1 in 50 or 1 in 500 males would buy a porn membership. Perhaps people are looking at conversion rates of 1:1000 and thinking that means it's a similar rate of males buying porn, but the two are very different. And some niches I've been getting 1:200 or under which isn't so far off conversion rates 10 or 15 years ago before tubes and torrents when just about every adult male in the USA and Europe were buying porn.

Barry-xlovecam

The only thing that matters to me is how many sales I am making and getting profit from or paid for. Speculating is just mental masturbation.

The answer is more than $2 billion and less than $40 billion for the whole adult entertainment industry. $6 - $8 billion MAYBE -- there is no hard data available -- that is a lot of string ...

bronco67

Someone must be getting paid because it seems like there's a shitload more porn being made than ever before.

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BigFurry

Props for the transparency

thommy

that is already a while but the payment is hard to realize there.

depends what you understand under "affiliate" - if it is someone who is generating traffic and market it - no - if it is someone who just buy and market traffic i can tell you that they are doing already 5-10 times more revenue as everybody here together.

china was one of the first markets for "affiliates" (media buyers) and there are more as you can count.

next week at the asian affiliate conference in bangkok i expect 3000 of them and if you just look at the entrance fees for this exhibition you will see that they can not be poor.

the problem in the adult industry is that there are not enough smart marketers who even thought about the lifetime revenue of a CONSUMER in compare to the lifetime revenue of the 5 minutes when the same consumer is a wanker and joins one programm what he will use for 3 or 4 months.

imagine what would happen to walmart if they decide to sell only short pants from tomorrow on.

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thommy

i did and i owned one of the biggest german speaking membership sites for more than 12 years - what is your point ?
i started 1997 - what else could we sell in that time ?

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NickBaer

Cam sites are music easier to buy, $20-$100(in local currency) at a time. Move your percentages more towards Cams.

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NickBaer

Small Affiliates cannot get search engine attention.

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NickBaer

Then again, what percentage of the Porn buying population already has a cookie set for most membersites? Affiliate sends a hit, and there's already a cookie set for someone else.

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